NewChums
How it WorksSafety Center
Sign inSign up
MTG Prediction Challenge

How scoring works

Before each new Magic set launches on MTG Arena, you pick the 5 cards you think will perform best at each rarity, commons, uncommons, rares and mythics, in order. Once the set is being played, we check how every card is actually doing and score your picks.

Where the data comes from

Card performance comes from 17Lands.com, a community project that collects anonymized game data from MTG Arena players who use its tracker. We use Premier Draft data from all 17Lands users and update once a day, around 9 AM ET. Card images and details come from Scryfall.

The stat: GIH WR

“Games in Hand Win Rate” is how often decks win in games where the card was in the opening hand or drawn. It's the stat Limited players quote when they argue about cards. Across 17Lands players an average card sits in the mid-50s; standouts are 60% and up.

Card Score, from 0 to 100

Every day we rank each card against the other cards of the same rarity. The best common scores 100, the worst common scores 0, and everything in between is spread evenly. A Card Score of 87 means the card is doing better than 87% of the other cards at its rarity.

Your order matters

Put the card you're most sure about at #1.

#1

×1.5

#2

×1.25

#3

×1

#4

×0.75

#5

×0.5

Your score

Card Score × multiplier, added up across all 20 picks. Random picks average about 1,000 points; a perfect, hindsight-is-20/20 entry scores about 1,940.

Small samples

In the first few days some cards have only a handful of games. Until 17Lands publishes a win rate for a card, it scores a neutral 50. After that, we blend its win rate toward its rarity's average until it's been played a lot, so one lucky day can't make a card look like a bomb.

Standings change every day

Your score is recalculated from all the data so far, so it can go down as well as up. Your card's win rate can rise while its rank falls if other cards rise faster. The first few days swing a lot; things usually settle by week two.

Season dates

Picks lock Monday, September 28 at 11:59 PM ET, just before Reality Fracture hits Arena. Standings update daily from Wednesday, September 30. The season ends Tuesday, October 27; the standings that morning are final, and badges are awarded.

Badges

Earn badges for great calls, and a few for glorious misses. Some are awarded when picks lock and the rest on the final day, and everyone can see them.

Ties

Ties go to the higher total from your four #1 picks, then to whoever finalized their picks first.

Fine print

Only cards from the main set count, at their printed rarity: no Special Guests, Commander cards or basic lands. Empty slots score 0. If a card never shows up in Arena draft, that pick scores a neutral 50.
Season timeline
Reality Fracture. Times are shown in Eastern time.

Previews

Happening now
Tue, Sep 8, 12:00 AM ET to Fri, Sep 18, 10:00 AM ETWizards and creators reveal new cards every day. They appear in the pick screens automatically.

Picks open

Fri, Sep 18, 10:00 AM ETThe full card list is out. Make your five picks at each rarity.

Prerelease weekend

Fri, Sep 25, 12:00 AM ET to Thu, Oct 1, 11:59 PM ETTabletop events at stores. No 17Lands data yet, but a good excuse to make a Plan.

Picks lock

Mon, Sep 28, 11:59 PM ETAfter this moment nothing can change, and everyone's picks are revealed to the group.Add to calendar

Arena launch

Tue, Sep 29, 2:00 PM ETPremier Draft opens and 17Lands starts collecting games.

First standings

Wed, Sep 30, 9:00 AM ETDay 1 of scoring. The first few days swing a lot.

Paper release

Fri, Oct 2, 12:00 AM ETThe set arrives in stores.

Week 1

Tue, Oct 6, 10:00 AM ETAnother week of games is in. See how your picks are holding up.

Week 2

Tue, Oct 13, 10:00 AM ETAnother week of games is in. See how your picks are holding up.

Week 3

Tue, Oct 20, 10:00 AM ETAnother week of games is in. See how your picks are holding up.

Final day

Tue, Oct 27, 9:00 AM ETThe morning's standings are the last of the season.Add to calendar
Card performance data from 17Lands.com (Premier Draft, all users). Card images and data via Scryfall. MTG Prediction Challenge is unofficial Fan Content permitted under the Fan Content Policy. Not approved/endorsed by Wizards. Portions of the materials used are property of Wizards of the Coast. ©Wizards of the Coast LLC. Not affiliated with 17Lands or Scryfall.
NewChums

Make plans that actually happen.

How it WorksSafety CenterContact

Terms of UsePrivacy Policy

© 2026 NewChums. All rights reserved.